Monday 17 October 2011

99ers UPDATE - Maybe they'll all get on a bus to occupy Wall Street and join in the fun

About a year ago I posted a blog about the 99ers in the USA. In a nutshell, in the USA, unemployment benefits only pay out for 26 weeks. Then you're on your own with no state support.

Because of the 2008 financial crisis and the huge increase in unemployment numbers, the American government passed an emergency law to increase these benefit payments by a further 73 weeks in order to limit the number of visible destitutes that would end up on the streets of U.S. cities.

That emergency legislation was only allowed to be passed on the basis of a concession to the political right. And that concession was that the new arrangement would be time limited. That time limit is about to expire.

To make matters worse, there is an election coming up soon so it is unlikely that this extension will be kept via a new version of that legislation.

Further details can be seen in my previous blog entry - http://subsister.blogspot.com/2010/12/99ers-set-to-take-off.html

Now then.

If that extension is not forthcoming by the end of this year (about 10 weeks time), the number of 99ers is set to increase on a rapid scale.

By February 2012, the number of new 99ers with no state support will increase by a staggering 2,153,700 people.



What will these 2 million new disenfranchised people decide to do about it?

Wednesday 12 October 2011

HOW MUCH DEBT IS OUT THERE? - How big will the crash be?

I've been looking at all of the debt figures that are floating around and one thing has become clear to me. Nobody actually knows how big it is. And that is exactly why the so called political experts cannot agree on how big any bailouts should be.

Here are just a few examples of the type of debt that is now out there.

Personal debt. i.e. debt that is tangible and that we actually know about. For instance mortgage plus loans plus student debt plus credit cards plus overdraught. This averages out to about £25,000 ($40,000) per person in the UK.

National debt. i.e. the amount a country owes. This amount is largely in the form of government paper (or bonds). That is to say money borrowed (or stolen) from the unborn. For the UK this currently stands at about $9,000,000,000,000 (9 trillion dollars). If you divide that by the population it equates to around $150,000 per person.

Global debt is the amount that the world owes. That is to say, the sum of all the national debts of sovereign nations. That figure is about $100,000,000,000,000 (100 trillion dollars). If you divide that by the entire human population it equates to about $15,000 per person on the planet. Seeing as the significant majority of the planet could not even imagine that amount of money or have any chance of ever paying back that amount, the debt share will have to be absorbed by 'wealthier' first world people.

Now, there is one more chunk of money that could be owed. It's a kind of insurance scheme known as the derivatives market. These debts never really come into being unless things start to go wrong.

Derivative global debt is thought to have been transacted at a nett value of $1,000,000,000,000,000 (1000 trillion dollars or 1 quadrillion dollars). If (or when) the bubble bursts this debt burden will be repatriated back down along the line to nation states and ultimately individuals.

This is where it gets scary. The sum of all the debts contained within the financial system divided by the world's economically active population is $1,000,000 per head (1 million dollars).


Monday 10 October 2011

QE2 - In other words, You are being conned again.

Last week, the UK government announced a second phase of quantitative easing. Or to give it it's real name "printing lots more digital money."

It was publicised by the Bank of England as a mechanism to kick start the UKs flagging economy. The idea was that this new money would trickle down from the central bank, to the investment banks, then to the high street banks, then to small businesses as loans and finally to facilitating new jobs and new wages.

What a load of bollocks.

This new money will never trickle down. The sum announced was £75 billion. That equates to about £1,300 for each person in the UK. That new money is yet another lot of new money that will have to be paid back at some future date by you and me.

My guess is that if you are lucky and the usual 90% to 10% rule applies, then you might see about £115 of that new money in your pocket over the next year or two. The other £1,200 will disappear much further up the food chain. It might even be used to save a bank from collapse or just be gambled to zero by hapless city traders.

The point is, the only way to get people spending again, is to put real cash directly into the pockets of real people. Most people (the 90%) have to spend all of their income on basic living expenses plus a few luxuries once in a while. If the new money were directed to the poorest 10%, that money would be spent in the blink of an eye and would continue sloshing around in the lower economy for some time. This would create demand, jobs and compounding VAT revenues.

Either the people at the top just don't get it, because they are so far removed from the realities of ordinary peoples daily lives or they are just plain evil and are pursuing a deliberate program of enslavement.

I'll leave you to decide.