Friday 26 November 2010

GLOBALISATION - Chickens coming home to roost - ( FROM CLUCK TO FUCK! )

Globalisation has had many critics over the years.

Arguments against the concept include inequality, environmental impact, sweatshops, cultural normalisation, dumbing down through uniformity etc....

However for the majority first world perspective, it has facilitated a perceived rise in standard of living, choice, cheap food, goods and services. All this has become possible through communication advances in interconnectivity across the globe. The whole ponzi scheme is clearly based on convincing people to buy loads of tat that nobody really needs and only really want on the basis of its easy availability, brand marketing brainwashing techniques, availability of cheap credit etc.....

During the 'good times', this interconnectivity offers a dumbed down feeling of well being; an increased happiness quotient and an illusion of being able to buy freedom.

This model is so new that it has never been tested during the bad times.

What could happen if things went bad in the Global Village ? :

Firstly the connectedness of world financial markets means that if an economic boom or bubble emerged, the whole connected world would feed this bubble. This bubble would become bigger than any bubble experienced in the post industrial revolution period.

This bubble could for instance be cheap credit.

The banks may push the envelope by lending to riskier borrowers. They might even lend large sums to people who would have no means to repay.

The bubble might only stretch so far due to finite limits.

A nervousness might set in.

Banks might feel twitchy about the amounts on the wrong side of their balance sheets.

As if by magic the debt has moved from personal loans to private company debt.

They might stop lending to each other.

Credit availability may stall.

Some banks might fail.

Governments might have to rescue banks using hundreds of billions of taxpayers monies. Government might be forced to nationalise banks. In other words Governments would be nationalising debt and privatising profit.

As if by magic the debt has been moved again. From private companies to the public purse.

This might be called sovereign debt.

Interest rates may have to be slashed.

This could cause cash flow problems further down the food chain.

Businesses, large and small, could fail because their creditors refuse to supply goods and services on existing credit length terms.

Unemployment could rise.

Government spending could rise due to increases in benefits, lower taxation revenues, bank bail-outs.

Banks could restrict mortgage lending.

House prices could fall.

Economic growth might fall.

There could be a recession.

Entire countries could get nervous. They might feel that other countries may default on their debts.

They might buy the debt in form of government bonds at higher interest rates.

Their debt to earnings ratios might rise.

Their bond yield spreads might rise.

They might have to print more money.

Their currency may have to be devalued if it has its own fiat currency.

Other countries may drive down the value of their own currencies in order to maintain an export trade advantage.

A currency war could cause uncertainty in equity markets.

Financiers might switch to gold, looking for a perceived safe haven.

A secondary gold market may emerge. There could be high street gold buying shops. There may even be TV ad campaigns asking people to send their jewellery in the post in exchange for cash.

Gold prices could rise five fold or ten fold or ......

A secondary commodities bubble could emerge.

Agricultural commodities could get caught up in this speculative market. As could fossil fuel commodities.

Food and energy prices could be driven higher.

Governments may feel pressurised to accept rescue monies from other countries. There may be strings attached.

Those strings might be an austerity program.

That program may be painful to everyone living in that country.

They may have to take pay cuts.

They may have to cut millions of jobs in the economy.

There could be civil unrest, demonstrations, protests and even riots.

The government's revenues might fall again due to even lower tax revenues.

Economic growth may fall again.

Other countries may begin to falter.

The contagion could spread like a fire.

Firstly it could just be a few kindling republics and small countries.

Then maybe some larger countries may be affected due to their trading reliance with that failed country.

Recessions could turn into depressions.

And then..................................Protectionism.... Hyperinflation.........Nationalism.........War

Sound familiar ?

GLOBALISATION ! Forget the old arguments. THINGS HAVE MOVED ON !

Sunday 14 November 2010

MORE DEBT IRELAND? Mmmm YES PLEASE !

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With Irish Bond spreads widening, it looks like Ireland will have to go to Europe for some financial debt restructuring assistance.

They will be asking for around £70 billion in order to avert a sovereign debt default. That's another £15,000 for every man, woman and child in Ireland to add to their existing burden.

It seems incredible that the UK's debt to GDP ratio is so high and we are not seen to be nearing this default position. Or are we?

Our position is only perceived tenable if the market remains confident in our triple AAA rating from the ratings agencies.

Unfortunately ratings agencies appear not take fundamentals into account during their assessment processes. And who are the ratings agencies anyway? And who's interests do they represent?

Anyway, it's nice to see Ireland are doing the same as the UK.

Robbing their children's and grandchildre's future earnings to pay for their parent's profligate past.

Monday 8 November 2010

FOOD STAMPS ?

Over 40 million American's are now in receipt of food stamps. Thats almost 20% of the U.S. population.


http://www.businessinsider.com/20-signs-the-american-consumer-is-completely-and-totally-tapped-out-2010-9#as-of-june-the-number-of-americans-on-food-stamps-had-set-a-new-all-time-record-for-19-months-in-a-row-17

When you consider the eligibility criteria for getting on the 'Suplemental Nutrition Assistance Program' (SNAP) that statistic is even more incedible.

Eligibility - http://ssa.gov/pubs/10101.html

When the peace time program was initiated in 1964 it was designed to help 350,000 struggling Americans. Now 40,000,000. That's progress. That's civilisation. That's the first world.

How long will it be before the Tories add food stamps to their proposed 'work fare' program in the UK?

Sunday 7 November 2010

FOOD PRICE RIOTS

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More food riots have broken out in recent weeks.

The latest has been in Egypt where food prices have more than doubled during the last 12 months.

Since February, when 40 people were killed in Cameroon, riots have spread to Mauretania, Mozambique, Senegal, Mexico, Haiti, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Bolivia, West Bengal and Indonesia.

The media coverage of these events is poor.

The driving force behind the price riots and the people's reactions to the price rises, with the exception of perhaps Haiti, is Commodity price bubbles driven by finacial speculators who currently struggle to make money in convential bond and equity markets.

This situation can only get worse as more and more financial institions accross the globe switch their dealing strategies from stocks, shares and bonds to food and metal based commodoties and derivitives thereof.

How will governments around the globe coordinate a response to this looming ethical and financial disaster. After all, you can't print food!

Comments welcome.

Thursday 4 November 2010

BLINDNESS !

Considering the dire economic indicators that have developed in recent months, there seems to be an astonishing sense of optimism and confidence in both commercial and consumer markets.

There is aparent growth, an improving consumer sentiment index, range-trading stockmarkets accross the globe, robust retail figures and a general acceptance that the economic maelstrom of the last 2 years has largely concluded. Other than a few general worries about public sector job security, populations accross the globe are slowly drowning in their own complacency without any knowledge of what is to come.

The coordinated financial acts perpetrated by governments around the world are screening us from the tsunami that is sure to follow.

Worldwide zero (or near zero) interest rate policies are making it all but impossible for the capitalist elite to make any serious money.

Countries around the world are continually devaluing their own currencies in order to gain marginal competitive advantages over their trading partners. The currency war is already in full swing.

Merchant bankers, investment banks and stockbrokers across the globe are migrating away from traditional stocks, shares and financial derivatives and putting all of their focus on COMMODITIES.

Gold is trading far higher than ever before and that is a worrying sign in itself. But that safe haven is pure vanity in this new world order.

City traders are switching in their droves to cash crop commodities and much more worrying, cash crop futures and derivatives.

In just 3 months these commodities have risen as follows:

Cotton +66%
Sugar +68%
Soyabeans +23%
Rice +29%
Oats +31%

These price rises are only turning in gains for brokers and other city traders. The producers, farmers and distributors see nothing of these gains.

These price rises will be feeding into the general economy over the next few weeks and months and will affect all of us but in particalar, the third world who will be completely priced OUT.

The prices for these commodities traditionally followed a supply and demand financial model and were influenced only by crop failures, physical wars and natural disasters.

The new world order sees these products merely as trading options.

How long will we allow this to develop and will we allow it to develop into the next global crisis.

WAKE UP !

CHANGING THE DEMON'S IDENTITY

During the last few months of Tory/Lib Dem rule, there has been a steady move to redirect the wider argument of local, national and global bankruptcy.

It started out, quite rightly, with the blame laying firmly and squarely on the Bankers and other hangers on in the financial services community.

Once the Tories seized power the public were gently swayed into beleiving that it was Gordan Brown/The Labour Party that was responsible.

Almost six months on, and a budget and spending review later, the government has introduced controversial and mind bending rule changes regarding areas such as, housing benefit, taxation, child benefit etc

These marginal changes have little fiscal value but have a nasty subtext that is seized upon by the right wing media and promulgated to the general mass of the chattering classes.

All I hear from people these days are arguments that are now based on class, employment, unionisation, location, ethnicity, morality etc.

These deliberately spiteful budgetry tax and spending anomolies have conspired to succesfully erase 'The Bankers' from the mind of the people.

People are now beginning to turn against each other on the basis of race, employability etc.

If you don't believe me, just listen to any radio phone-in or TV audience debate.

It's getting like the 80's again. And it's gonna get worse. A lot worse.

Don't let them mess with YOUR MIND.