Tuesday 14 December 2010

99ers SET TO TAKE OFF !

In the United States, unemployment benefits are only paid for a maximum of 99 weeks or just less than 2 years.

After that period, that's it. You're on your own.

After the banking crisis of Autumn 2008, unemployment began to soar. Every week the number of unemployed rose. These job losses continued for 55 weeks at a weekly increase of between 50,000 and 200,000 per week.

The worst period was from November 2008 to October 2009. But even since October 2009, the number of new jobs created has never exceeded 50,000 per week.

The net effect of all of the above statistics is that from December 2010 there are likely to be around 50,000 people losing their benefits every week. This figure will get significantly worse up tom around April 2011 when around 200,000 people will lose their benefits every single week.

It remains to be seen what such large numbers of disenfranchised people will do about this over the coming months.

Keep 'em peeled!

Thursday 2 December 2010

Educating Slaves !

The British higher education system has been changed drastically over the last 20 years.

When I was a student, I got a full mandatory grant, a discretionary hardship grant, a book grant and heavily subsidised canteen facilities.

After a very comfortable time at college, I left higher education with a useful qualification that enabled me to be flexible in my career choice, not be tied to a corporations dictatorial mandate and I had no fear of debt.

The last 20 years has seen all the benefits that I received, systematically dismantled. These educational rights have been replaced with a system whereby students are leaving education with massive debts.

The jobs that most of these graduates will end up doing, would have been done by similar people with a couple of 'A' levels 20 years ago.

All that has happened is that the jobs market has been fixed in order that a large percentage of the new working population are being systematically enslaved by debt at the start of their careers; at the start of their adult lives; before they can even think about housing, families etc

During the next phase of this program, employers will bring down graduate wages to a median figure of less than £21,000. The feed in interest repayment taper will become a ceiling for employers to exploit.

Fancy a workforce that's too scared to answer back or question management?
Fancy a workforce enslaved by the fear of their own debts?
Then look no further. Employ a graduate today. Or even better employ a cheaper slave in 3 years time.

It's time to wake up !
It's time to take back control !
It's time to change your destiny !

Friday 26 November 2010

GLOBALISATION - Chickens coming home to roost - ( FROM CLUCK TO FUCK! )

Globalisation has had many critics over the years.

Arguments against the concept include inequality, environmental impact, sweatshops, cultural normalisation, dumbing down through uniformity etc....

However for the majority first world perspective, it has facilitated a perceived rise in standard of living, choice, cheap food, goods and services. All this has become possible through communication advances in interconnectivity across the globe. The whole ponzi scheme is clearly based on convincing people to buy loads of tat that nobody really needs and only really want on the basis of its easy availability, brand marketing brainwashing techniques, availability of cheap credit etc.....

During the 'good times', this interconnectivity offers a dumbed down feeling of well being; an increased happiness quotient and an illusion of being able to buy freedom.

This model is so new that it has never been tested during the bad times.

What could happen if things went bad in the Global Village ? :

Firstly the connectedness of world financial markets means that if an economic boom or bubble emerged, the whole connected world would feed this bubble. This bubble would become bigger than any bubble experienced in the post industrial revolution period.

This bubble could for instance be cheap credit.

The banks may push the envelope by lending to riskier borrowers. They might even lend large sums to people who would have no means to repay.

The bubble might only stretch so far due to finite limits.

A nervousness might set in.

Banks might feel twitchy about the amounts on the wrong side of their balance sheets.

As if by magic the debt has moved from personal loans to private company debt.

They might stop lending to each other.

Credit availability may stall.

Some banks might fail.

Governments might have to rescue banks using hundreds of billions of taxpayers monies. Government might be forced to nationalise banks. In other words Governments would be nationalising debt and privatising profit.

As if by magic the debt has been moved again. From private companies to the public purse.

This might be called sovereign debt.

Interest rates may have to be slashed.

This could cause cash flow problems further down the food chain.

Businesses, large and small, could fail because their creditors refuse to supply goods and services on existing credit length terms.

Unemployment could rise.

Government spending could rise due to increases in benefits, lower taxation revenues, bank bail-outs.

Banks could restrict mortgage lending.

House prices could fall.

Economic growth might fall.

There could be a recession.

Entire countries could get nervous. They might feel that other countries may default on their debts.

They might buy the debt in form of government bonds at higher interest rates.

Their debt to earnings ratios might rise.

Their bond yield spreads might rise.

They might have to print more money.

Their currency may have to be devalued if it has its own fiat currency.

Other countries may drive down the value of their own currencies in order to maintain an export trade advantage.

A currency war could cause uncertainty in equity markets.

Financiers might switch to gold, looking for a perceived safe haven.

A secondary gold market may emerge. There could be high street gold buying shops. There may even be TV ad campaigns asking people to send their jewellery in the post in exchange for cash.

Gold prices could rise five fold or ten fold or ......

A secondary commodities bubble could emerge.

Agricultural commodities could get caught up in this speculative market. As could fossil fuel commodities.

Food and energy prices could be driven higher.

Governments may feel pressurised to accept rescue monies from other countries. There may be strings attached.

Those strings might be an austerity program.

That program may be painful to everyone living in that country.

They may have to take pay cuts.

They may have to cut millions of jobs in the economy.

There could be civil unrest, demonstrations, protests and even riots.

The government's revenues might fall again due to even lower tax revenues.

Economic growth may fall again.

Other countries may begin to falter.

The contagion could spread like a fire.

Firstly it could just be a few kindling republics and small countries.

Then maybe some larger countries may be affected due to their trading reliance with that failed country.

Recessions could turn into depressions.

And then..................................Protectionism.... Hyperinflation.........Nationalism.........War

Sound familiar ?

GLOBALISATION ! Forget the old arguments. THINGS HAVE MOVED ON !

Sunday 14 November 2010

MORE DEBT IRELAND? Mmmm YES PLEASE !

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With Irish Bond spreads widening, it looks like Ireland will have to go to Europe for some financial debt restructuring assistance.

They will be asking for around £70 billion in order to avert a sovereign debt default. That's another £15,000 for every man, woman and child in Ireland to add to their existing burden.

It seems incredible that the UK's debt to GDP ratio is so high and we are not seen to be nearing this default position. Or are we?

Our position is only perceived tenable if the market remains confident in our triple AAA rating from the ratings agencies.

Unfortunately ratings agencies appear not take fundamentals into account during their assessment processes. And who are the ratings agencies anyway? And who's interests do they represent?

Anyway, it's nice to see Ireland are doing the same as the UK.

Robbing their children's and grandchildre's future earnings to pay for their parent's profligate past.

Monday 8 November 2010

FOOD STAMPS ?

Over 40 million American's are now in receipt of food stamps. Thats almost 20% of the U.S. population.


http://www.businessinsider.com/20-signs-the-american-consumer-is-completely-and-totally-tapped-out-2010-9#as-of-june-the-number-of-americans-on-food-stamps-had-set-a-new-all-time-record-for-19-months-in-a-row-17

When you consider the eligibility criteria for getting on the 'Suplemental Nutrition Assistance Program' (SNAP) that statistic is even more incedible.

Eligibility - http://ssa.gov/pubs/10101.html

When the peace time program was initiated in 1964 it was designed to help 350,000 struggling Americans. Now 40,000,000. That's progress. That's civilisation. That's the first world.

How long will it be before the Tories add food stamps to their proposed 'work fare' program in the UK?

Sunday 7 November 2010

FOOD PRICE RIOTS

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More food riots have broken out in recent weeks.

The latest has been in Egypt where food prices have more than doubled during the last 12 months.

Since February, when 40 people were killed in Cameroon, riots have spread to Mauretania, Mozambique, Senegal, Mexico, Haiti, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Bolivia, West Bengal and Indonesia.

The media coverage of these events is poor.

The driving force behind the price riots and the people's reactions to the price rises, with the exception of perhaps Haiti, is Commodity price bubbles driven by finacial speculators who currently struggle to make money in convential bond and equity markets.

This situation can only get worse as more and more financial institions accross the globe switch their dealing strategies from stocks, shares and bonds to food and metal based commodoties and derivitives thereof.

How will governments around the globe coordinate a response to this looming ethical and financial disaster. After all, you can't print food!

Comments welcome.

Thursday 4 November 2010

BLINDNESS !

Considering the dire economic indicators that have developed in recent months, there seems to be an astonishing sense of optimism and confidence in both commercial and consumer markets.

There is aparent growth, an improving consumer sentiment index, range-trading stockmarkets accross the globe, robust retail figures and a general acceptance that the economic maelstrom of the last 2 years has largely concluded. Other than a few general worries about public sector job security, populations accross the globe are slowly drowning in their own complacency without any knowledge of what is to come.

The coordinated financial acts perpetrated by governments around the world are screening us from the tsunami that is sure to follow.

Worldwide zero (or near zero) interest rate policies are making it all but impossible for the capitalist elite to make any serious money.

Countries around the world are continually devaluing their own currencies in order to gain marginal competitive advantages over their trading partners. The currency war is already in full swing.

Merchant bankers, investment banks and stockbrokers across the globe are migrating away from traditional stocks, shares and financial derivatives and putting all of their focus on COMMODITIES.

Gold is trading far higher than ever before and that is a worrying sign in itself. But that safe haven is pure vanity in this new world order.

City traders are switching in their droves to cash crop commodities and much more worrying, cash crop futures and derivatives.

In just 3 months these commodities have risen as follows:

Cotton +66%
Sugar +68%
Soyabeans +23%
Rice +29%
Oats +31%

These price rises are only turning in gains for brokers and other city traders. The producers, farmers and distributors see nothing of these gains.

These price rises will be feeding into the general economy over the next few weeks and months and will affect all of us but in particalar, the third world who will be completely priced OUT.

The prices for these commodities traditionally followed a supply and demand financial model and were influenced only by crop failures, physical wars and natural disasters.

The new world order sees these products merely as trading options.

How long will we allow this to develop and will we allow it to develop into the next global crisis.

WAKE UP !

CHANGING THE DEMON'S IDENTITY

During the last few months of Tory/Lib Dem rule, there has been a steady move to redirect the wider argument of local, national and global bankruptcy.

It started out, quite rightly, with the blame laying firmly and squarely on the Bankers and other hangers on in the financial services community.

Once the Tories seized power the public were gently swayed into beleiving that it was Gordan Brown/The Labour Party that was responsible.

Almost six months on, and a budget and spending review later, the government has introduced controversial and mind bending rule changes regarding areas such as, housing benefit, taxation, child benefit etc

These marginal changes have little fiscal value but have a nasty subtext that is seized upon by the right wing media and promulgated to the general mass of the chattering classes.

All I hear from people these days are arguments that are now based on class, employment, unionisation, location, ethnicity, morality etc.

These deliberately spiteful budgetry tax and spending anomolies have conspired to succesfully erase 'The Bankers' from the mind of the people.

People are now beginning to turn against each other on the basis of race, employability etc.

If you don't believe me, just listen to any radio phone-in or TV audience debate.

It's getting like the 80's again. And it's gonna get worse. A lot worse.

Don't let them mess with YOUR MIND.

Wednesday 30 June 2010

SELF FULFILLING PROPHECIES - And other sheep based tomfoolery

The financial houses use complex mathematical models in a vain attempt to predict the direction of the markets.

These models spew out huge data streams and occasional fixed numbers known to economists as technical levels.

The markets get very excitable when these technical levels are approached, so much so that they buy or sell as these setpoints are neared.

The problem here is, when a significant basement technical level like S&P at 1040 is approached the sheep and the virtual sheep sell, sell, sell. The fear that ensues causes them to sell further as though this number signals the end of the world.

Recently a number of these technical levels have been skirted with and it is only a matter of time until the panic will develop to such a degree that the machines will set a new base technical level. The new level is arrived at by looking further back in 'data time' on the assumption that we have been here before so what happened next in the past is likely to happen again in the future - WRONG!

Unfortunately the algorithms, differential equations, fibonacci projects etc are about as sophisticated horoscope birth chart analysis. You only beleive or act on the bits you want to beleive in. The mathematics of economics is just plain flawed.

The closest real world phenomenon that could be compared to market sentiment and future gazing is Brownian Motion.

Sadly, brownian motion really is impossible to predict.

Trouble is, when the sheep wake up and realise this, they will all sell everything.

Should be fun watching though.

Tuesday 15 June 2010

KILLING THE FUTURE - What future ?

Old moneyists and post war families planned their financial affairs both for themselves and the future generations of their families.

This model was similarly adopted by politicians. The thinking was long term.

The babyboomers reduced their depth of field and focussed their efforts on the next generation and only the next generation. Their rallying cry was ' We're doing it for the kids'.

Their offspring focussed on themselves and everyone was living in the moment - Punks, hippies, yuppies. Various shades of exactly the same philosophical colour.

The current generation is borrowing everything from the future in order to slake their insatiable appetite for useless shit today. This version of non-planning applies personally, locally, nationally and globally.

Where next? There is only one place beyond the future. The End !!

Friday 28 May 2010

WEALTH CREATION or Button Pressers & Mouse Clickers

There are few real ‘first world’ jobs now.

Most first worlders spend 99% of their time pressing buttons on PCs, phones etc, under the illusion that the work they are doing is either useful, adding value or creating wealth.

So, they are thinking about wealth concept in the context of their mouse clicking rather than the reality of their own Orwellian existences.

A good indicator of wealth creation is toil based sweat.

Deluded office based career people (button pressers and mouse clickers) often think that their wealth creation indicator is stress.

This condition is experienced by a high proportion of first worlders.

The reality is that the stress is only an indicator of their own frustration and/or uselessness and has no correlation with adding value or wealth.

At some point, probably soon, the number of clickers and pressers will have to be rationalised. Watch out for the social and economic fallout.

Comments please.

Thursday 27 May 2010

AVERAGE EARNINGS – Bullshit !

Both economists and the Government use average earnings when designing fiscal strategy and policy.

The figure for the UK is said to be £39,000 (about 46,000 euros or $56,000).

By using this figure their policies are targeted at a very small and unrepresentative part of the demographic.

This average figure is distorted massively when you look at the distribution curve for earnings.

87% of the UK population are earning less than the national average !!!

The true average (what most people earn) is shockingly around £11,000 per year or £220 per week.

Those on these typical lower incomes are largely invisible to those above the government's published average earnings.

See how you’re doing at http://www.ifs.org.uk/wheredoyoufitin

Comments are welcomed.

GROWTH – The Capitalists’ mantra !

Why does everbody think that 'growth' will save us from our economic woes. I say growth was a major contributor to our current situation.

Growth is bad.
Nature does not like it and neither should we.

Growth kills.
In nature, a differential equation exists that ensures that nett growth equals zero.
Example: Predatory animals need to maintain their body weight within very fine limits to avoid starvation. Too big = too slow. Too small = too weak.

In humans, for weight read wealth.

Humans think they are brighter than nature. Durrrr !

We are dinosaurs !

GDP = Greed, Desperation and Panic.

Because most people are always 'spent out' and more some, the only way to create growth is to increase the number of spenders.

The only way to increase the number of spenders is by redistributing the wealth to create a larger mass of consumers. But that in itself causes sustainability issues.

It’s about time that the mythical concept of growth was abandoned, and redistribution was implemented by governments.

Its a shame that communism happened about 100 years too early. A modern command economy producing solar cells, mass permaculture, EVs etc instead of unwanted tractors and weapons might just work.

Uh Oh !!! Hippy alert.

Wednesday 26 May 2010

UK DEBT – Myth, legend and reality.

Everyone is being conned regarding the scale of our economic problems.

All political parties and the media constantly talk about the debt and the debt reduction plan.

The austerity budget has been sitting in Whitehall for a considerable time and would always have been implemented regardless of who had won the recent general election. But even that plan will barely scratch the surface.

The media and the politicians talk about a deficit of £163 million pounds. They also talk about a budget plan to cut the debt by half in four years. THAT IS A LIE !

£163 billion is just THIS YEARS debt.

Their plan will only reduce the year on year debt to £85 billion by 2014.

The total outstanding debt is already £908 billion ( http://www.debtbombshell.com/ ) rising to £1375 billion by 2014.

That’s equivalent to £53,000 per tax payer.Imagine how long it will take the average person to save that.

Or imagine receiving a tax bill for that amount.

Just the interest on our debt for this year will be £43 billion. That's £1,900 for each and every household in the UK.

Remember this debt was largely created by bad practices in the Private financial services sector. All that has happened is that PLC debts have been transferred to Public Debt which will be addressed through 'Austerity Programs'.

DON'T BUY GOLD. Buy PV.

Over 99% of all clever things invented, produced, and consumed since WW2 are now in landfill or causing chaos in the atmosphere.

It took 100 million years of ancient sunlight to produce sufficient rotting biomass to create the world’s oil reserves but only 100+ years to use this supply.

If we had had to wait for all of these processes to happen in the future, rather than robbing it from the past, the commodities futures market would price a single barrel of crude at approx $100,000. This figure sounds ludicrous but as we descend the peak oil curve, that mad price will be realised by the market.

Suddenly solar power seems very efficient indeed.

Tuesday 25 May 2010

PEAK OIL - A big story the media refuse to report on.

Unfortunately fuel prices will continue to rise and rise and rise.

Within the next few years (10 at most) the price will be out of reach for all but the wealthiest and elite classes around the globe.

We have already passed a significant milestone in the post 'gold standard' petro-economy. That point is known by economists as 'Peak Oil'.

Essentially when that point was reached, the world entered an era where the demand for and production of oil exceeded the volumes of newly discovered reserves.

Over time this problem will be compounded due to emerging market countries insatiable demand for energy.

It took 200 million years for the sun to convert carbon to plant and animal waste and subsequently to oil. It has taken just over 100 years for cars etc to reach the 'Peak Oil' point with a relatively gentle upward demand slope and a steep new reserves curve.

Looking at the numbers now, 10 years is actually optimistic regarding the affordability of the remaining reserves.

As we are probably as greedy as our parents and grandparents, I don't hold out much hope for an alternative scenario to emerge.

Google 'Peak Oil' for more information.

Comments welcomed and encouraged.





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